Point Forecast Ranking

Methodology for Ranking Miners According to Point Forecast performance.

Point Forecast Ranking

For the point forecast, the best miners are determined according to a rolling average of the absolute error between the earlier forecasted price and the observed Reference Rate at the evaluation time. For ease of reference we sometimes call this a delta-factor:

$e_i = |p_i-p_{CM}| / p_{CM}$

$\Delta=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{n=1}^N e_n$

Where at launch, N = 12, in other words the previous 1-hour of evaluated forecasts. The Miners are then ranked, so that the top miner is the one with the smallest delta-factor. This ranking will determine the Point Forecast Weight they receive later.